PRESIDENT MUGABE . . . analysts say he will repeat the lie that he is fully in charge

HARARE – President Robert Mugabe will likely use this week’s congress of his ZANU PF party to harden his stance against MDC demands to resolve a power-sharing dispute so he can appease party hawks opposed to the coalition government and show the party faithful that he is in complete control of the new administration, analysts said.

A unity government formed between ZANU PF and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in February is being hobbled by disagreements over how to fully implement terms of a political deal signed last year.

ZANU PF, MDC and another splinter MDC group are in negotiations to end the disputes but analysts have said there will be no breakthrough before ZANU PF holds its congress that will officially open this Friday and will retain Mugabe as undisputed party leader.

“Mugabe is going to be ‘Mr Rhetoric’ par excellence. He will come out defiant saying the onus is on the MDC to resolve what it sees as the outstanding issues,” said John Makumbe, a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer and long time Mugabe critic.

ZANU PF says the MDC should push for the removal of Western travel and financial sanctions imposed on Mugabe and his inner circle, call on pirate radio stations broadcasting from abroad to end their broadcasts and that the former opposition party should stop running a parallel government.

Tsvangirai has branded ZANU PF an unreliable partner and wants the 85-year-old leader to replace Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono, Attorney General Johannes Tomana and appoint new provincial governors as well as swear-in Roy Bennett as deputy agriculture minister.

Mugabe digs in

Political analysts said Mugabe would dig in, prolonging the impasse while trying to convince his radical lieutenants that even if forced by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to make concessions, ZANU PF will still remain in charge of the key apparatus of state.

South African President Jacob Zuma will this week get a report from Zimbabwean negotiators on the state of the negotiations, which he will pass on to Mozambican leader Armando Guebuza, who chairs the SADC Organ on Politics and Defence for action.

Mugabe, who is battling to control increasing divisions in the party over the emotive succession topic, is trying to delay full implementation of the global political agreement because the concessions would erode the core of his power.

The veteran leader has led Zimbabwe since independence in 1980 but lost to Tsvangirai in a presidential election last year in March only to return to power after a violent run-off election boycotted by Tsvangirai and which his MDC says left more than 200 people dead.

“Mugabe is trying to manage the succession issue in ZANU PF and it is a critical time for him not to be seen giving in to the MDC. Already there are those who are strongly opposed to the unity government who may view further concessions as selling out,” Eldred Masunungure, a University of Zimbabwe political commentator said.

Makumbe added: “He will repeat the lie that he is fully in charge and that there is nothing for ZANU PF to be afraid of but we all know the reality.”

Mugabe’s critics say the former guerrilla leader wants to die in office and is the biggest beneficiary of factional fighting in the party but analysts say ZANU PF faces real prospects of disintegration if the succession issue is not openly debated and resolved soon.

Mugabe dying in office

Retired General Solomon Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa lead factions vying to lead the party when Mugabe steps down but Mujuru seems to have got an upper hand this year after his wife Joice was nominated by a majority of the party’s provinces to remain as Mugabe’s deputy, seen as a springboard to the top party post.

Analysts are still divided on whether Mugabe will contest the next election, likely to be in 2013, when he will be 89.

Some analysts say the party will likely choose another presidential candidate ahead of its next congress in 2014 and may make Mugabe party leader for life, fearing that if he stands as a candidate he will further divide the party or will be heavily defeated by Tsvangirai.

But political analysts say among the competing factions, there is no candidate strong enough to face Tsvangirai, who is using his position as Prime Minister to further hone his presidential skills. That could leave Mugabe with a wide berth to have another shot at the presidency.

Mnangagwa was forced to seek refuge in a rural constituency after twice being defeated by an MDC legislator in Kwekwe and is not a national figure while Joice Mujuru, although a deputy president for the past five years remains untested in a national election and may not make it in a country that remains largely chauvinist.

“I don’t see anyone coming out to challenge Mugabe to stand as ZANU PF presidential candidate. They are all too petrified of that old man and those who want to challenge him may just retreat into the shadows,” Makumbe said.

“Mugabe will lose the next election and that will be the end of ZANU PF. They are in a dilemma, either way the party seems heading towards disintegration,” he added. – ZimOnline